Ukraine has no path to victory and the war has become a massive sunk cost, yet Congress is about to send $60 billion more taxpayer dollars to Zelensky

Time for peace talks?

You can say the Ukraine war skeptics have been vindicated…

On 24 February 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. In the days and weeks thereafter, the people calling for a swift end to the hostilities and a mediated settlement were basically shouted out of the room, as excited accelerationists in the West demanded nothing less than the overthrow of Moscow.

It’s been 651 days since Russian forces breached the border. Let’s take a look at what has happened since that fateful day.

But first, it’s important to set the stage accurately.

Russia’s invasion was immoral, but it was not without provocation. Ukraine, a country that was once a buffer between East and West, has over the past several years transformed itself into a NATO-aligned client state. This has alarmed its much more powerful neighbor, which understands NATO as an adversarial force.

The current war is a result of Ukraine unbalancing itself and botching the fundamentals of realpolitik. A nation state must never put too much weight into pursuing objectives outside of its rational self-interest, and that’s exactly what Ukraine did. Putting the moral conversation aside, Kyiv’s increasingly antagonistic approach to Moscow (egged on by the West) was the height of foolishness.

Now, there are a handful of hard truths about the ongoing war in Ukraine that are worth observing today:

1. Ukraine isn’t winning and has no path to victory without direct Western involvement

Ukraine’s military has fought bravely and they have achieved success in slowing Russia’s advances, but they are outmanned and outclassed by a superior fighting force, on top of not having a functioning Air Force. At the expense of Ukraine, Western nations have wisely not crossed the red line for nuclear escalation, which would come via direct involvement in the war. Under this framework, Ukraine simply does not have a path to victory. Thus, it’s immoral to continue maintaining the delusional that victory can be achieved.

2. The people who now live under Russian control don’t really care for the Ukrainian government.

Similar to the residents of Crimea (which was annexed in 2014), surveys show that the people who live in now Russian-occupied eastern Ukrainian lands don’t care much for the government in Kyiv. In fact, many often think of themselves more as Russians than Ukrainians. The longer this war continues, the less leverage Ukraine has. The vast majority of Russia-friendly land lost to Russia will not be recaptured or delivered back to Ukraine.

In all likelihood, the current lines will be permanent, whenever the war comes to an end.

3. Ukraine has become a massive money pit (unless you work in the defense industry)

Since the war began, a massive U.S. taxpayer-funded war chest has been continually deployed to Ukraine, now growing to the tune of around $200 billion (once the next round of funding is authorized by Congress) in money, weapons, and supplies.

Far from the initially advertised “drop in the bucket,” Ukraine has become a significant taxpayer expenditure. In Congress, the war is now being spun as a jobs program for the “defense industrial base,” the new term for the military industrial complex.

4. Egging on the war was a massive blunder

When the war began, a select few commentators and analysts asked why the U.S. was not acting to push for peace talks. We found out soon thereafter that NATO powers were vehemently opposed to peace talks, and wanted to effectively use Ukrainian nationals as cannon fodder in their ideological crusade against Russia.

Now, Congress and the Biden Administration are readying another $60+ billion for Ukraine, once Republicans succeed in winning a few pennies for the border. That money will do nothing to help Ukraine take back territory from Russia, nor will it assist Ukraine’s negotiating position. It’s nothing more than a slush fund for the power brokers in D.C. and Kyiv, and it will encourage Ukraine to continue its fight to the very last Ukrainian.

For the sake of humanity, and for the sake of the American taxpayer, this war needs to come to an end as soon as possible. The Donbas region is not worth another American penny.