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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

If the BRICS countries were supremely well-positioned to dethrone the dollar, they would have done so by now--this year's BRICS summit was their 14th such get-together. The economic and political motivations for challenging the dollar's presumed (and greatly exaggerated) hegemony are hardly new forces in the international arena.

While recent events have placed a spotlight on the confluence of corruption that permeates the West's "rules based order", the sobering reality of all currency is that the two primary reasons governments throughout history have debased their currency are war and social spending.

China is unleashing successive rounds of monetary and fiscal stimulus just to prop up their collapsing real estate sector, a reality made worse by their ongoing "Zero COVID" lockdowns.

For its part, Russia is already flirting with expansionist monetary policies with its recent interest rate reductions, even as inflation remains in double digits. That Moscow has a war effort to fund surely plays a role in Russia's adoption of looser monetary policy.

These are not circumstances that give rise to sound money.

While cryptocurrencies are an intriguing proposition, Bitcoin itself is ultimately just an expression of existing fiat currency dynamics, which is why its value has collapsed against the world's fiat currencies even as those same currencies engage in wholesale monetary debasement.

Until cryptocurrencies establish themselves as actual currencies in use as a widely accepted medium of exchange, they will remain forever tethered to the same corrupt fiat currency system crypto fans hope to replace.

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norstadt's avatar

Why does "until" equal "forever" in your last sentence? I thought "The End of History" was a failed theory.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

"Until" does not equal "forever". Without the "until", however, the consequence is the "forever".

Cryptocurrencies cannot displace existing fiat currencies so long as they are treated as commodity investment vehicles (vis a vis gold and precious metals) rather than the primary unit of exchange for buying ordinary goods. The commodity system that powers current crypto valuations also binds crypto to existing fiat currencies. That link must be severed or crypto will ultimately be just a footnote in the history of money.

While some countries such as El Salvador have dipped their toes into these waters by making Bitcoin legal tender, that trend has hardly caught on, and, given Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride to the bottom of late, it won't be catching on any time soon.

Cryptocurrencies are an intriguing monetary proposition. They are hardly an inevitable one.

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norstadt's avatar

Ride to the bottom? Those tokens are still worth a small fortune, despite the nonstop disparagement.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

A ~50% YTD loss in value against the dollar, the yuan, and the euro for both Bitcoin and Ethereum makes "ride to the bottom" an apt description.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD?comparison=BTC-CNY%2CBTC-EUR%2CETH-USD%2CETH-CNY&window=YTD

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norstadt's avatar

Oh well, the USD has lost 27% vs. a stick of butter this year. Change happens.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

Let's hear some of it from the "horses mouth", for the fact is..."All the paper money issued today is Federal Reserve notes. The real backing for the nation's money is faith in the strength, soundness and stability of the American economy."

~ The Hats the Federal Reserve Wears, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pg 4

Faith is what backs our monetary system. YOUR faith. Do you still have faith?

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."

~ Frederic Bastiat in "The Law"

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation,

governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."

~ 1980 Annual Report, Federal Reserve

Bank of Richmond, pg 6

Isn't confiscation of the wealth of the citizens a nice way of saying STEALING?

Federal Reserve Notes are not federal, represent no monetary reserves and no longer conform to the definition of notes. Failing to state who, will pay what, when or to whom - they ceased to be legal tender notes, (offers of money) over 50 years ago. They are in fact instruments of legalized THEFT.

"Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience." ~ John Locke (1690)

If the money you earn has no value and you are forced through fiat paper legislation to take it for your labor, are you not having your property (labor) destroyed and are you not being reduced to nothing but slavery? Is not the state at war with the people?

5th Plank Communist Manifesto: Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.

The Federal Reserve System, created by the Federal Reserve Act of Congress in 1913, is indeed such a “national bank” and it politically manipulates interest rates and holds a monopoly on legal counterfeiting in the United States. This is exactly what Marx had in mind and completely fulfills this plank, another major socialist objective. Yet, most Americans naively believe the U.S. of A. is far from a Marxist or socialist nation.

"The writers of the constitution knew exactly what they were doing when they wrote in Article I Section 10 paragraph 1 'No state shall... make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. ' People able to barter with gold and silver coin control government and are free. Loss of the right to trade in gold and silver coin enslaves people to the creators of psychological 'money.'":

-Merrill Jenkins, Sr.,

Money - The Greatest Hoax on Earth

"The Federal Government, with the cooperation of the Federal Reserve, has the inherent power to create money--almost any amount of it."

~ The National Debt, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, p. 8

ALMOST? Why only ALMOST? What keeps them from creating ALL they want? You? Me? Your dog? A full moon?

"...Keynes argues that inflation is a 'method of taxation' which the government uses to 'secure the command over real resources, resources just as real as those obtained by [ordinary] taxation'. 'What is raised by printing notes, ' he writes, is just as much taken from the public as is a beer duty or an income tax.' "

- 1980 Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, pg 10

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Collapse Podcast's avatar

If BRIC are planning to use their own digital currencies & they are widely accepted they could make a claim on world reserve

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

China has a digital currency, and it's already a failure. The CCP has the authority and the power to lockdown the entire nation indefinitely, and even with that level of control cannot compel Chinese citizens to use the digital yuan.

The divergent economic and political agendas of the BRICS countries makes it unlikely that group will produce a currency union any time soon, digital or otherwise. There is no Maastricht Treaty in the offing for the BRICS nations.

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Collapse Podcast's avatar

So will the dollar will continue to reign strong? With no challengers?

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

As I've already said in another comment, the day will come when the dollar is displaced as a leading currency. History teaches us that no empire lasts forever.

However, history also teaches us what it takes for one currency to displace another: rising wealth, power, and influence. Even with the US economy notionally overtaking the British economy as the world's largest around the turn of the 20th century, it was not until after WW1 that the dollar was a major counter to the pound sterling, and it was not until WW2 that the dollar was leveraged into a de jure global reserve status through Bretton Woods.

It took the decades from the formation of the common market until the conclusion of the Maastricht Treaty for the euro to be brought into existence--decades in which the countries of Western Europe steadily built up a global presence necessary to give the euro legitimacy.

Will the BRICS nations repeat that history? That is a possibility. But if it does happen it will be the result of years of political evolution and change, not of an opportunistic arrangement by Russia and China hoping to leverage the economic turmoil in Western Europe to their advantage.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

The "dollar" has not existed for over 50 years, for you see, a "dollar" is a weight and measure of a SUBSTANCE not a piece of paper. At one time pieces of paper were circulating that stated this on them. The United States of America has on deposit ONE DOLLAR IN SILVER payable to the bearer on demand. That was a PROMISSORY NOTE that was able to be REDEEMED for the DOLLAR OF SILVER. http://bornagainclassics.com/Books/images/50-story.jpg

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Collapse Podcast's avatar

No they don't care about us Jordan that’s correct.

They aren't noble either & I’ve been saying this for a very long time -

they hate us & spit in our faces.

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Amber's avatar

Let's change that. We can do it if we simply consent as a collective to this:

http://pppway.net/#Vision

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DoctorObvious's avatar

The Federal Reserve is a private banking cartel.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

Well sort of. A private banking cartel that runs our monetary policy with ties to the Treasury and other branches of "government". The Federal Reserve System, created by the Federal Reserve Act of Congress in 1913, is indeed such a “national bank” and it politically manipulates interest rates and holds a monopoly on legal counterfeiting in the United States. Which is why there is a "law" against "illegal counterfeiting!" This is exactly what Marx had in mind and completely fulfills this plank, another major socialist objective. Yet, most Americans naively believe the U.S. of A. is far from a Marxist or socialist nation.

"The writers of the constitution knew exactly what they were doing when they wrote in Article I Section 10 paragraph 1 'No state shall... make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. ' People able to barter with gold and silver coin control government and are free. Loss of the right to trade in gold and silver coin enslaves people to the creators of psychological 'money.'":

-Merrill Jenkins, Sr.,

Money - The Greatest Hoax on Earth

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DoctorObvious's avatar

Well said.

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Julia Lerner's avatar

Why put all the blame on the prostitutes and ignore the johns and pimps? As long as there is an oligarchy, it will always find willing puppets to run gov'ts for its own benefit. If you don't cut off the head of the snake, nothing can be really changed.

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norstadt's avatar

They cite low unemployment as an important positive economic indicator. But if we were all slaves, employment would also be high.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

What do you mean "if"?

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MR2's avatar

How do you know the dollar isn’t already separated from the government?

And bitcoin is a truer fiat than the dollar. Since the dollar is a debt-backed fiat currency. If you reject fiat, you need to reject bitcoin.

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Dr. Tom LaMar's avatar

Amen ! ...we need DEBT-FREE money almost like Ben and Abe printed, but to put a check on fed overprinting (and spending, a different related topic), I would involve the states using their 10th powers to make sure there was no over/under printing/generating of money and inter-national valuation could be subject to treaty perhaps updated by the hour if necessary !

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Moritz's avatar

I don‘t understand your line of reasoning at all. Bitcoin is not fiat. Fiat means „by decree“. Bitcoin is a purely free market alternative to fiat which actually is backed by something, namely the proof of work algorithm. This algorithm controls issuance of new bitcoins and is backed by energy, similar to how you need to extend energy to mine gold.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

LOL! True, bitcoin isn't fiat. It's part of a major brain washing scheme to get NO THING to be worth SOME THING. And people are buying it like snake oil. If for instance...if everyone lost their wallet would bitcoin disappear? Apparently yes it would because no one could access it. If the power went off in your country would you be able to use bitcoin? If you couldn't hookup to the internet would your bitcoin be useless? COME ON PEOPLE Wake The F UP!!

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Moritz's avatar

Why would millions of users lose their wallet? Even if, that wouldn‘t be the end of bitcoin. And yes, you can even use bitcoin without electricity or the internet, unlike credit cards. There are hardware/paper wallets like https://offline.cash/ or OpenDime that can be used to transfer value.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

_Have at it!

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

Bitcoin can be forked to split the currency, and the 21 million Bitcoin limit can be modified.

That is an arbitrary expansion of the currency, ergo, fiat.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

Go look up the definition for fiat instead of showing everyone how ignorant you are using it that way. Fiat currency is backed by fiat legislation that declares the money to be "legal tender" by government FIAT. Bitcoin does not fit the definition. It fits the definition of IDIOTS "believe" it is worth SOMETHING when it is NO THING to begin with. FIAT: [Latin, Let it be done.] In old English practice, a short order or warrant of a judge or magistrate directing some act to be done; an authority issuing from some competent source for the doing of some legal act.

Earlier in U.S. history, the country's currency was backed by gold and in some cases, silver. (ACTUALLY EARLIER IN US HISTORY THE COUNTRY'S CURRENCY WAS GOLD AND SILVER). The federal government stopped allowing citizens to exchange currency for government gold with the passage of the Emergency Banking Act of 1933. The gold standard, which backed U.S. currency with federal gold, ended completely in 1971 when the U.S. also stopped issuing gold to foreign governments in exchange for U.S. currency.

Since that time, U.S. dollars are known to be backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government, "legal tender for all debts, public and private" but not "redeemable in lawful money at the United States Treasury or at any Federal Reserve Bank," as printing on U.S. notes used to claim. In this sense, U.S. Fed Notes are now "legal tender," rather than "lawful money," which can be exchanged for gold, silver, or any other commodity.

Look at this image with the attached text: http://bornagainclassics.com/Books/images/50-story.jpg I think it explains it well.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

By your logic, Bitcoin is not even money since it's not government issued.

You may now continue with your regularly scheduled ranting.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

I believe that the Constitution makes it clear what our "money" should be. And it isn't a NO THING that fluctuates in value. If we were using gold and silver as it demands in Article 1 section 10 we wouldn't be in the situation where some made up BS electronic idea is being used for any kind of transaction. And according to the proper definition of MONEY, bit coin isn't money. IT has to be DURABLE, DIVISIBLE and a STORE OF VALUE. Something that goes from being worth NO THING to being worth 60K and then back to 20K IS NOT something that is a store of value. Gold and silver do not at this juncture in time "fluctuate" in value. A .25 cent silver quarter could buy a gallon of gas in 1964 and it still can if it is converted into Fed Notes or whatever else NO THING that you want to deal with. I suspect you would have been a proud promoter of tally sticks. You may now continue to being a sheep.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

First, some data points on your Constitutional argument --

Article 1 Section 10, Clause 1 of the Constitution reads as follows:

"No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."

https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript

The flaw in your Constitutional thesis is that Article 1 Section 10 is a binding upon the STATES. It is not a limitation upon the Congress.

There is room to argue that Section 8, Clause 5 leads to the restriction of money to gold and silver coin:

"To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;"

However, there is also the counterargument presented by Clause 6, which implies the permissibility of paper currency ("Securities"), and therefore by extension even cryptocurrency:

"To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;"

If only governments have the power to establish what is and is not "money", then the rest of your argument collapses immediately--for better or worse, Congress is arguably within its Constitutional authority to establish paper currency, and even convert that currency into fiat currency. That such may not be a sound policy does not preclude it from being a lawful one.

Regarding the remainder of your thesis:

While Bitcoin's success as a store of value is demonstrably problematic, arguing that gold and silver do not "fluctuate" in value is directly contradicted not only by current commodities data on both precious metals, but even by commentaries within Wealth of Nations on the value of gold and silver coin in terms of purchasing power--Adam Smith was quite the data geek, and provides numerous examples of the purchasing power of a quantity of silver being different at different times--i.e., "fluctuating".

A quick sampling of gold bullion futures pricing demonstrates that gold does indeed fluctuate in value.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-bullion

As for your silver quarter example, that argument is true in some years but not in others.

A 1964 silver quarter contained .1808 tr oz of silver. In January 1997 the highest price for silver was $5.04/tr oz, making the silver melt value of the 1964 quarter roughly $0.91.

https://sdbullion.com/silver-prices

A gallon of gas in January 1997 cost on average $1.283/gallon

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

This means your 1964 quarter would have purchased only 7/10 of a gallon of gas--LESS than in 1964.

That's a decline in value of the silver.

Those are the facts, and they do not reconcile to your thesis at all.

Reality still is a thing, even in this upside-down era.

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Moritz's avatar

Not really. This fork would just be a new cryptocurrency like Bcash, BSV or Bitcoin Gold. All of these „alternative bitcoins“ are trending towards zero.

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Moritz's avatar

LOL. Now try the year-to-date chart of the Nasdaq, iron or gold. Everything is trending down this year because we‘re going into an recession. Just zoom out a couple of years. Bitcoin is the best performing asset in history and starting its monetization. It is 40% up since it‘s yearly low. A month ago would have been the best time to buy. Now is the second best.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

Good luck with that

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MR2's avatar

it is literally decreed into existence by its creator(s).

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

Arguably, one of the reasons for Bitcoin's volatility is that it is backed by nothing except investor sentiment.

Even the dollar has more substantive backing, as despite the fulminations of many the US government is not likely to just turn its back on the dollar.

The virtue of cryptocurrency is that its mathematical foundations make blatant currency debasement notionally difficult if not impossible. That is a characteristic that crypto fans often argue gives crypto the characteristics of sound money.

While the depiction of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies as sound money is wildly overblown, the anti-debasement feature of crypto IS a virtue that would do well in a post-fiat currency regime. However, to get to that regime crypto has to sever the commodity links that drive valuations currently and tie crypto to the existing fiat currency regime.

Whether that can occur without a substantial measure of global civil strife and violence is a question yet to be answered (although I suspect strife and violence will prove inevitable).

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Rikard's avatar

Free market has never, ever, beem the goal. Maintaining the staus quo is the goal. Rich get richer, poor gets to work more for less until they again are serfs, and the middlemen (the bourgeoisie as the older term is) are kept in perpetual fear of losing what they've got, should they lag or lapse in devotion to the Lords of Capitalism, and in equal perpetual greed and ambition in the hope of being uplifted to the lofty ranks of the Masters - the proverbial donkey pulling a cart through chasing a carrot on a stick.

In a free market, I could hop a plane to China, buy a steamer trunk full of brand spanking new smartphones for less than 1/10 what the price is here, fly back and sell them on the curb.

But that would undercut the owners of production, capital, money, and so on. So they instead use the state as their corporate police force to keep profits up and people down.

Leaving the people of any nation the only options: comply, or unite around something outside the control of the corporate capitalists and their "democratic" Kapos. Nation. Creed. Race. Culture. Tradition. Unfortunately, capitalists are very good at using these to sow dissention - witness political correctness, woke, and so on. Are you black if you vote Trump? Are you a real Democrat if you don't like Biden? Fallacy upon fallacy to create strife and dissention - not even the Golden Apple created as much chaos and fighting.

As a non-american watching and listening from the outside, to me it appears you are finally becoming a nation and a people. You have an ideal of what American the person is, but that ideal is to the people of your nation something quite different than it is to your corporate and political masters. To me, saying "an arab can never be a swede" is natural and right, since the only way to become a swede (or an arab for that matter) is to be born one. But American? Again, as an outsider, an American to me has no skincolour in particular, no specific faith, and no unique tradition except what has amalgamated from all the consitituent peoples origins.

But now your elites have for 50 years emphasised difference. Different everything. Smaller and smaller tribes, each more doctrinaire than the other. Europeans, africans and asians - we have all seen this in our respective histories when rulers have played empire: but your rulers are doing it to you for the only reason of keeping you splintered and at loggerheads.

Divided like that your nation cannot stand.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

The problem with your statement is the use of the word capitalism the way you are using it. We do not and have not had free market capitalism in our lifetime. We have crony capitalism which is what you are describing. True FREE MARKET capitalism was what you said at first..."In a free market, I could hop a plane to China, buy a steamer trunk full of brand spanking new smartphones for less than 1/10 what the price is here, fly back and sell them on the curb." BTW, what is a "steamer trunk"?

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Barry O'Kenyan's avatar

Alas., It is too late now! They will separate you from your body before you even daydream of it.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

which is why they want us disarmed because since there are way many more of us than "them" we can also separate them from their bodies which does not bode well for them. And I say, let the separating begin! Start with Klaus Schwab that piece of human shit.

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Barry O'Kenyan's avatar

In general, applying common sense and basic questioning, ignore or do the opposite of what they tell us or want.

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Joe Van Steenbergen's avatar

At the very least, we need to take back control of the money supply from central banks. It would then be an easy matter for the Treasury to issue money (e.g. greenbacks) that is debt free. The root of our money problems lies in the central bankers's profit motive, and the interest we pay on the debt is used to control and enslave us all.

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Moritz's avatar

That is not really how our monetary system works. The only backing our fiat system has is treasuries. Just look into the balance sheets of Fed and commercial banks. The pristine collateral is treasuries. This means that in this ponzi scheme that is fiat currency, the only way to stimulate more growth is more government debt.

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Joe Van Steenbergen's avatar

As I understand it, Lincoln and his Treasury Secretary issued greenbacks to finance the Civil War. They were backed only by the full faith and confidence of the Government. There was no debt backing of these greenbacks, and no interest payments.

We have been conditioned to believe that government spending must be financed by debt. Bankers want us to believe that, but it's not true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTPopNG6LRM

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kertch's avatar

And you would have us believe that government spending can be backed by nothing but "because we said so". Why not just have the government issue notes demanding a portion of your resources, labor, and time with no promise of you getting anything in return? Issuing money backed by nothing is theft. At least in Fuedal systems the aristocratic rulers where honest about the fact that they could claim any resources that the population might have. This idea is MMT nonsense, and BTW, The Soviet Union, Cuba, and North Korea operated their economies under what is essentially MMT.

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John Hensley's avatar

The only problem with your thesis is the dollar has strengthened against all major currencies the past several years. Simply supply and demand, and more people want the dollar than the yen, euro, or pound for whatever reason. Doesn't need to make sense.

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Stephen J Wood's avatar

The high demand of the dollar is due primarily to the fact that OPEC only accepts dollars for oil purchases. This is one reason why China runs a trade surplus and buys up US treasuries. I touch on the petro-dollar system with regards to the decline of American manufacturing here:

https://stephenjwood.substack.com/p/8-reasons-for-the-decline-of-american

It's true that there has been talk about about a new global currency for a while with nothing to show for it. What is different this time around is the crisis in Ukraine and the Western sanctions on Russia. By crippling their own domestic energy production and alienating the Russians, the West is pushing Russia further into the arms of China, thus shifting the balance of power eastward. I'm not sure if anything will come out of BRICS specifically, but major countries know they can contest America's power by looking for new ways to pay for oil without using dollars. Russia's alienation opens that door. I would not expect a new reserve currency to appear overnight, but it would not surprise me if major countries mount a more serious effort to challenge dollar hegemony in the near future.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

While the 1974 secret agreement with Saudi Arabia did result in Saudi Arabia plowing oil revenues into US Treasuries, OPEC has since 2016 been "OPEC+", with the "+" being primarily Russia, which is the world's largest exporter of oil products. Russia's price/production dispute with Saudi Arabia in 2020 underscores Russia's growing influence within that cartel. Russia's insistence on being paid in rubles for its energy exports to Europe and elsewhere also underscores its economic muscle in energy markets. And Russia has largely avoided US Treasuries since 2018.

Where the major threat to the petrodollar system lies is not in any rapprochement between Russia and China (which is not exactly a new phenomenon but has been building since the fall of the Soviet Union, and will likely continue until the two countries eventually collide in competition for Asian resources) but Russia's dominance within the OPEC+ cartel--a dominance which is already a fait accompli.

However, for any successor to the petrodollar system to unfold, there has to be a capital marketplace for the OPEC+ nations to invest oil revenues. Moscow doesn't have that, and China's markets, while growing, have significantly underperformed over the past five years relative to the US, Europe, Japan, and even India.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?comparison=INDEXNIKKEI%3ANI225%2CINDEXEURO%3APX1%2CSHE%3A399106%2CINDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&window=5Y

Thus, with Russia's war effort in Ukraine consuming an unknown portion of Russian GDP, and China's economy in an even more parlous state than the US, the BRICS talk of a "new global currency" is at this point more wishful thinking than anything else. The BRICS group of nations is simply not in a position today to roll out a credible new currency vis-a-vis the euro, and the two mainstays of that group, Russia and China, are facing some pretty significant economic headwinds in the near term (while Russia's economy nominally is doing well, wars have always been a net drain on a country's resources, and I highly doubt Ukraine will prove any different for Russia). BRICS is not likely to be in a position to challenge dollar hegemony for a number of years at least; the foundation just isn't there yet.

Ultimately, as others have speculated as well, just as the geopolitical situation is shifting to a multipolar situation, in the event of the dollar's loss of hegemonic status the world's currencies are likely to shift to a multi-reserve currency arrangement, where no one currency achieves the hegemonic status accorded the dollar--or at least attempt to do so. How fiat currencies function in a competitive multipolar political environment is a question yet to be answered.--I suspect the answer will be some variation of "not well".

Which may be the best and strongest reason for the dollar to continue in its current position for a bit longer than many suggest--the likely alternative is not a new currency hegemon but global currency chaos.

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

The dollar's recent strengthening against other major currencies highlights a reality that many simply refuse to acknowledge: The dollar's mythic "global reserve currency" status is more fantasy than fact.

While the dollar does comprise a significant portion of foreign currency reserves for a number of countries, it is not the currency most frequently used in the SWIFT international bank messaging system. The euro holds that distinction.

Moreover, the dollar's "global reserve" status is largely the result of the de jure declaration of the dollar as the global reserve currency in the 1944 Bretton Woods agreements, which established formal exchange rates for other currencies in terms of the dollar, while the dollar maintained a $35/t oz gold peg. However, Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, and its successor, the Smithsonian Agreement, fell apart by 1973, when the world embraced fully floating exchange rates. Since that time, there are neither political nor legal restrictions barring the introduction of another currency to occupy the hegemonic slot notionally enjoyed by the dollar.

Will a currency eventually arise to dethrone the dollar as a leading global currency? Almost certainly. However, it will happen not because of a moment of political maneuvering in a time of global crisis, but because the backer of said currency has established itself as having the military, political, and economic gravitas to justify a measure of confidence in its stability.

Dethroning the dollar, just as when the dollar dethroned the pound sterling, will happen organically or not at all.

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Edwin's avatar

In the future, when you go to trade some of that gold or sterling for thirty rounds of 5.56 ammo, and you ask "How much," the dealer is liable to say "All of it."

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

That's an argument for making the 5.56 NATO milspec round the new global reserve currency.

Just sayin'....

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Edwin's avatar

Naw, Black Hills MK 262 5.56 77gr OTM (Open Tip Match).

I bought a metric crapload at 30 cents a round, now they are pushing $2 each or even more if you actually want to get some!

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Moritz's avatar

There‘s a simple reason for that. Other countries, especially Europe and Japan are in much further in the death spiral of their economies and, hence, their currencies.

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Swag Valance's avatar

Bitcoin maximalists are neoliberalism at its worst

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Courageous Lion's avatar

This explains in detail what is going on with the monetary system...

https://courageouslion380.substack.com/p/a-caveat-against-injustice

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Courageous Lion's avatar

Jordan, the founding fathers DID seperate the money from the state in actuality. As Merrill Jenkins has stated in his book, "Money The Greatest Hoax on Earth", "The writers of the constitution knew exactly what they were doing when they wrote in Article I Section 10 paragraph 1 'No state shall... make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. ' People able to barter with gold and silver coin control government and are free. Loss of the right to trade in gold and silver coin enslaves people to the creators of psychological 'money.'":

-Merrill Jenkins, Sr.,

Money - The Greatest Hoax on Earth

Note his statement... BARTER with gold and silver coin... Let me say this...

That is why I post this quite regularly. And I know it is a bit of a read but it is WHY we are in the predicament we are in right now.

There is a reason that "they" don't listen to the people anymore. It is also the reason they ignore the provisions of the 2nd amendment. The reason is that the lynch pins to the Constitution were removed in 1903 & 1913. In 1903 the blatantly UNconstitutional Dick Act, which was a blatant act of TREASON, eviscerated states rights with the ending of STATE militias. Those first 13 words of the 2nd Amendment are perhaps the most IMPORTANT 13 words in the whole Constitution. A well regulated MILITIA being NECESSARY for the SECURITY of a FREE State. It is the ONLY place the word NECESSARY is used in the Bill of Rights.

And once that happened it became easier to do what they did in 1913. Which was removing the monetary system from the hands of We The People.

Once the control of the monetary system was taken from the people and those in control could create all they wanted out of thin air with the collusion of the Federal Reserve, none of what we think matters anymore. None of what we do matters anymore. ESPECIALLY since we don't have the MILITIAS to enforce the Constitution.

They have effectively enslaved the world to their fiat money systems based on nothing that they create out of thin air and are able to use to do whatever they want. We have no say in what they do. They control us because they have stolen the lynch pins to the system that was designed by our founding fathers to work. No, it was not perfect, as mankind is not perfect, but it gave us a very limited government that was taken away from us when the monetary pin was stolen in 1913. You see, Article 1 Section 10 and Article 1 Section 8 and the first 13 words of the 2nd Amendment ARE what hold the whole governmental apparatus together. Without it, we are nothing but serfs on a plantation that they control with their fiat unlawful, unGodly, theft system of paper money backed by nothing, created out of thin air with no recourse.

Understand, that when the money had SUBSTANCE of SOME THING, and not just IMAGINATION, one of the recourse's we the people had was to withhold taxes which could effectively shut the government down if they were engaged in some sort of insanity that no one agreed upon. Today, we could all quit paying them and they would just print up what they needed and thumb their noses at us. Worse yet, they create it without even printing. They just create numbers on a computer and print out checks.

COMMUNIST MANIFESTO:

Fifth Plank: Centralization of credit in the hands of the State, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly. (The Federal Reserve Bank, 1913- -the system of privately-owned Federal Reserve banks which maintain a monopoly on the valueless debt "money" in circulation.) And the monopoly is ENFORCED by Federal firepower. Violating the very principle of the first 13 words of the 2nd Amendment.

The Federal Reserve is a blatant violation of Articles 1 section 8 and 10. Those are the two places that Roger Sherman, the founding father that signed all three of our founding documents put paper money in a casket and for all intents nailed it close. But due to the apathy of earlier generations their progeny are suffering under this sick theft system.

What are those two provisions? The Federal reserve "notes" violate Article 1 section 10 of the US Constitution which states in part, No State shall...coin Money; ... make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts. And section 8 says CONGRESS shall have the power to COIN MONEY, regulate the value there of and to fix a standard of weights and measures. COIN doesn't mean paper money. COIN doesn't mean gold or silver "backed" paper money. COIN MEANS WHAT IS SAYS!

Sadly enough, with a little research you can see the United States is a functional communist country with all 10 planks of the Communist Manifesto in place. And it has been that way for many years. And that most Americans would fight to the death to keep it that way. Voting is a joke, writing your CONgressman/woman/it is also a joke, (heavy on the CON) almost anything we do is a JOKE TO THEM because THEY control the MONEY, or should I say TOKENS.

If we were using the gold and silver coin that the founding father, Judge Roger Sherman had wanted, the prices of goods and services would actally go down due to the law of supply and demand. Think about it. And if you want to read WHY Judge Sherman made sure the monetary clauses were placed in the Constition, read his Caveat against a fluctuating medium of exchange. A Caveat Against Injustice, or an Inquiry Into the Evils of a Flucuating medium of Exchange released by Spencer Judd Publishers many years ago.

http://bornagainclassics.com/Books/ACaveatAgainstInjustice-Shermann/

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JaBe's avatar

If you think the $ is toilet paper then BRICS is a corn cob and Bitcoin is a photo of a corn cob. Conceptually digital blockchain currency is a solution but sadly Bitcoin has already been highjacked by the Chinese. See "The End of the World Is Just Beginning", by Peter Zeihan.

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Bill P's avatar

The FED has been creating $$$ to fund the overseas Central Banks, buy assets/bonds/ bailout the big banks, and keep the REPO markets going. It is an artificial rigged system. Moreover the FED is akin to the Mafia, it takes it cut from money printing and the rest of the profits go back to the Federal government. So if the FED takes in say 500$Billion in interest payments, the FED takes 6% and the rest goes back to the government , meanwhile the public is said to owe $trillions. We are on the verge of modern monetary theory whereby tokens will be handed out directly from the Federal government/FED and the big banks will be bypassed as the Bond buying scheme will end.

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Courageous Lion's avatar

Blood running in the streets. Mobs of rioters and demonstrators threatening banks and legislators. Looting of shop and home. Credit ruined. Strikes and unemployment. Trade and distribution paralyzed. Shortages of food. Bankruptcies everywhere. Court dockets overloaded. Kidnappings for heavy ransom. Sexual perversion, drunkenness, lawlessness rampant...

One distinguished politician writes to another: "The wheels of government are clogged, and we are descending into the vale of confusion and darkness. No day was every more clouded then the present. We are fast verging to anarchy and confusion."

Where, when and whom? Get ready for a shock: AMERICA, 1786, ten years after the signing of the Declaration of Independence. The correspondence was from George Washington to James Madison. On February 3rd, 1787, Washington wrote to Henry Knox: "If a person had told me that we there would have been such formidable rebellion as exists, I would have thought him fit for a madhouse."

What went wrong? What forced this noble new country into conditions far worse than the tyranny against which it had declared its independence in the first place? The history books tell us it was a complicated variety of interrelated things, but reality tells us it was only one: the money issued by the Continental Congress and the states' banking houses was paper that could not be redeemed for gold or silver coin. Inflation, that was what had sunk George Washington to the depths of despair.

The paper currency of the Congress was printed in such exorbitant amounts (in relation to the precious metals they represented) that wages and prices skyrocketed, forcing the Legislature to enact harsh wage and price controls. When these failed, moral-sounding laws reeking of piety and patriotism were enacted in an attempt to chain the people under penalty of violence to the government's absurd money:

If any person shall hereafter be so lost to all virtue and regard for his Country as to refuse to accept its notes, such person shall be deemed an enemy of his Country.

This amounts to a law protecting bad check artists and so the people naturally ignored it and others like it. The depreciation of paper currency relative to coin followed the same sickening course our paper currency follows today....

Folks, the previous information was taken from a book written in 1980 titled "Miracle on Main Street" by the late F. Tupper Saucy, let this sink in...NINETEEN EIGHTY. We are now in the year 2022, rapidly approaching an abyss. That was over FORTY TWO years ago. Have you heard the phrase "Worthless as a Continental?" It is the same concept. Let's look at the problem that is looming or that we are already embroiled in closer:

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

- John Maynard Keynes

http://bornagainclassics.com/Books/The-Miracle-On-Main-Street.pdf

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