The tariff debate will be decided in the midterm elections
It doesn’t really matter what you or I think. What matters is how this all plays out within a short window.
I don’t like tariffs as an economic principle. Instead of the Trump Administration attempting to rebalance the economy through tariffs, I would much prefer that Congress gets its priorities in order and cuts spending and regulations so that the American citizen and his family can thrive.
But it doesn’t really matter what you or I think.
What matters is how this all plays out within a short time horizon.
Millions are losing weight with this science-backed method:
Out = restrictive eating and calorie counting. In = personalized weight loss plans.
Join millions in losing weight with this science-backed app.
Check out the Simple App and get your personalized weight loss plan to get started.
There’s plenty of posturing occurring across the media spectrum this week in the aftermath of the Trump Administration’s decision to impose a robust tariff regime upon the United States’s trading partners.
In the short term, both sides of the debate are making all kinds of intellectual, principled, ideological, and sometimes utterly outlandish arguments about the merits or deficiencies of such a widespread policy measure.
Again, it might make for an intriguing policy debate, but it must all be put aside to calculate what side comes out on top because it’s only the results that matter.
There are certain political realities that are going to make this a make-or-break maneuver.
First and foremost, midterm elections occur in November of next year. That’s only a year and a half away. This means the White House has a very short leash to produce results from their tariffs/trade war initiatives. If the stock market is in the deep red, coupled with rising prices and other domestic economic challenges, no amount of White House and friendly media spin can change the minds of the masses. If markets have recovered, America is in the process of reindustrializing vital national and economic security components, and purchasing power remains high, it’s smooth sailing for Republicans through the midterms, despite what the lunatics on CNN and MSNBC try to tell people.
Like it or not, Americans largely hold the current administration responsible for current economic conditions, and the economy is often the single most important item on the priorities list for Americans. This carries its own set of less-than-ideal incentives, given that it limits the demand to fix long-term problems. Nonetheless, it’s the political reality we face.
Given that Congress seems determined to have a limited impact on policy, the midterms will reflect almost solely on the Trump Administration.
Republicans will go into midterms with a single-digit advantage in the House (220-215, after the special elections in Florida). In the Senate, Democrats are defending 13 seats, while Republicans are defending 22. However, the Senate shouldn’t be much of an issue to hold — barring a complete unforeseen catastrophe — given the geographic makeup of the seats up for re-election. And the stakes are enormous here. Losing the House would significantly handicap the president’s agenda, making him a lame duck in short order. Securing the House would mean enacting two more years of White House priorities.
Some may describe it as bold; others may say it’s reckless. Yet, in the end, all of our pontificating and debating doesn’t matter. What matters is if the nation's economic health is in order before the 2026 midterms.
I believe tariffs are being used by the US not as a foundational economic strategy per se, but as a very persuasive means of forcing otherwise unwilling trade partners to negotiate fair (free) trade arrangements to level the global economic field, end the disastrous policies of both political parties that resulted in the exporting of American manufacturing, loss of jobs and gutting of middle America. This is not a “tariff war”, it is not just a negotiation, it is the restoration of the “American Dream”! It is also perhaps a means to cause the end of the failing Chinese Communist mercantile system.
Good article. I find the tariff debate so disingenuous. I live in Washington State. We have a 10% “tariff” on pretty much all goods and services but we call it sales tax. We also have a “tariff” on gasoline that runs somewhere around $1.50 a gallon. We have another tariff on the miles driven by trucks who deliver good and services. My point being is we already tax everything 100 times over yet economists are pretending a new Federal Tax is the one that will ruin the economy. Low taxes are key to a successful economy but let’s not kid ourselves that the tariffs are one straw that broke the camel’s back.