The Dossier's State Of The Union Preview
10 things to expect from POTUS tonight.
We worked some of our sources in D.C. and scoured the news media in order to get some insight into what President Trump will be talking about tonight for the State of the Union.
Here’s what we expect to go down:
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The economy and affordability — President Trump has said he plans to talk about “affordability” in his prime-time speech, as he faces challenging polling on his economic policies. The economy will be the most critical issue in holding off Dems in the midterms.
Tariffs and the Supreme Court ruling — The address comes days after the Supreme Court ruled — at least according to the consensus review of the text — he does not have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs under an emergency powers law. He’s expected to lay out his plans to work around the decision, with new 10% global tariffs scheduled to take effect imminently.
Iran and potential military strikes — He is expected to discuss the ongoing tensions with Iran and its nuclear weapons program. ABC News reports today that he is considering a range of options for military strikes against Iran, including even a possible limited strike to enhance the U.S. negotiating position. Pretty much everything is on the table right now, from a total decapitation of the regime in Tehran to withdrawing all kinetic options entirely.
Immigration and border enforcement — Immigration policy and border security have been key pillars of Trump’s second term, and the administration has defended its enforcement agenda, though public support has declined after recent controversies involving federal agents. DHS Sec Kristi Noem is reportedly in hot water due to her strategic misprioritization and sloppy high profile deployments of ICE agents into deep blue areas of the country.
The government shutdown — The speech comes as lawmakers are still at an impasse over funding for the Department of Homeland Security amid the administration’s illegal immigration crackdown, with the partial shutdown in its second week.
Foreign policy and “peace through strength” — POTUS is expected to continue stressing the merits of his Reaganesque “peace through strength” foreign policy, according to White House officials familiar with a draft of his speech. He will likely also address the policies that led to the capture of the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. More broadly, he will address the Western Hemispheric policies that allies are labeling the “Donroe Doctrine,” a term that pays homage to the original Monroe Doctrine.
The Ukraine-Russia war — Today marks four years since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Both sides still remain far from a deal, though the president has prioritized ending the war by almost any means possible.
Iran nuclear negotiations — in addition to a potential strike against Iran, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program are expected to continue this week. President Trump will likely deliver an update on the progress.
Midterm election messaging — The address is likely to be a test run of the message Republicans will give to voters in November’s elections for control of the House and Senate, as the GOP defends slim majorities in both chambers. Historically, midterms have not been kind to the party of a second term president. Though we will live in unpredictable times.
Celebrating Olympic athletes — Speaker Johnson said they’re going to “squeeze in” the gold-medal winning men’s hockey players from the 2026 Winter Olympics. That should make for a much-needed bipartisan celebration in Washington, D.C.
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At some point, the jurisdiction of the judiciary over matters of foreign policy needs to be removed. Congress could do this and actually has done so previously though with a narrow focus. Not going to happen in the current political environment but at some point in the future the Republicans should help a Democrat President do this. Short term loss for a long-term gain. To read the tariff decision is to understand why. The whole thing, including the dissent, was an exercise in legal pedantry with little understanding that there were important foreign policy issues involved. Judges shouldn't be let anywhere near foreign policy.
One more prediction: The speech will draw on for over two hours.