Byron Donalds Won With Optimism. His Opponents Lost With Doomerism
Postgame Analysis On All Four Major Candidates.
As a Florida Man, I thought it would be worth it to give my thoughts on Florida’s Republican gubernatorial primary, which resulted in a decisive victory by Rep. Byron Donalds. The final scoreboard: Byron Donalds 47.8%, Jay Collins 25.2%, James Fishback 10.5%, and Paul Renner 8.5%.
Byron Donalds
Rep. Donalds smartly leaned into his Trump endorsement, but he also carved out space for himself, distinguishing his campaign from his opponents by taking the optimist lane. He talked about building Florida to new heights, allowing for businesses and families to flourish, while keeping the government out of people’s lives. His rivals were focused on painstakingly workshopping the next thing they should ban.
Of course, fomenting outrage is a legitimate political strategy, and it’s often successful, unfortunately. Donalds was smart to avoid it. He spoke warmly about both the President and the Governor for eighteen straight months — both men are genuinely beloved by Floridians and retain 90+% GOP approval ratings in the state — and refused to be baited into feuds between their respective supporters. Congressman Donalds is undoubtedly a high-level political operator, and he will need those skills up in Tallahassee.
Donalds had raised a ton of money, with over $51 million still sitting in his war chest. No candidate in either party was remotely close.
He heads into November with a largely unified party. Job well done.
Jay Collins
Nobody hustled harder than Jay Collins, and it showed in how he overperformed the pollsters. Though he still finished over 22 points back.
But sometimes, pure retail energy is not enough for seasoned voters. Ask ten Collins voters what a Collins governorship would look like and you’d get ten different answers. That vagueness is likely part of the reason why Governor DeSantis never endorsed his campaign. Things started off with lots of promise, given that DeSantis handpicked Collins as his Lieutenant Governor and called him the “Chuck Norris of Florida politics.” But eventually, he declined to back him despite being asked point-blank, repeatedly. Collins eventually settled on the explanation that the Governor was avoiding a “proxy war” with Trump. The more accurate read is that DeSantis simply didn’t see a compelling message or a path to victory.
James Fishback
Fishback did successfully inspire a niche of young voters to rage against the machine, and 177,000 votes is not nothing.
More seasoned voters saw what was within the skin suit: a con man, a clown, and a chameleon all in one. A federal judge recently ordered him to pay his former employer more than $1.3 million in fees and costs because he stole proprietary information from them, on top of a separate $229,000 judgment that sent the U.S. Marshals after his possessions. He owes his own lawyers over $150,000 in unpaid bills. Fishback is a narcissistic loser untethered from any value system, and he is now almost two million in the hole. Expect a big podcast launch within the month to start repaying his creditors.
Paul Renner
Paul Renner is a serious conservative with real legislative wins in the state of Florida. Unfortunately, his campaign was a total mess. He ran as something of a DeSantis tribute act and never distinguished himself from the original, pushing all of his chips in with the hopes to receive an endorsement that never arrived. He should have saved the money.
What’s Next?
Byron Donalds enters November with a largely unified GOP and a robust state party apparatus that feels good about its chances of defeating Democrat David Jolly. Governor DeSantis has made it clear that he is on board, too. I like his chances.